Vibe-Winter-2425 - Flipbook - Page 27
LEFT: Early 1970 was a snowy time for the
North Conway village area and here at the
Conway Scenic Railroad. As seen below,
the late 1960s and early 1970s averaged
130 inches of snow annually.
remained warm and wet. Temperatures
were 6.1F above normal, with daily
minimums about 9F warmer than usual.
Despite January’s claim as the coldest
month, 19 days saw above-freezing
temperatures. The heaviest snowstorm
on January 9-10 left 8.6 inches of waterlogged snow.
February’s snowfall, despite typically
being the snowiest month of the year,
totaled 2.3 inches—19 inches below
average. Measurable snow fell on only
two days, and the snowpack dwindled to
2 inches by month’s end. February tied
as the 3rd warmest since North Conway
records began in 1959, rounding out
a meteorological winter with snowfall
16.7 inches below average, but slightly
above-average precipitation due to a
waterlogged December-January.
While not included in meteorological
winter, March of 2024 warrants itself a
separate mention. Despite a temperature
departure of +4.6F, snowfall totaled a
notable 30.6 inches—14.7 inches greater
than normal. The first significant snow
fell March 9-10 with a 24-hour total of
6.9 inches. Two weeks later, March 24
recorded 16.8 inches of snowfall at the
North Conway site, bringing our snow
depth to 23 inches that dwindled to a
trace by March 31.
Looking ahead ...
This winter’s outlook will hinge upon,
not just the El Niño-Southern Oscillation
(ENSO), but also the North Atlantic
Oscillation (NAO). ENSO influences global
weather patterns through sea surface
temperature (SST) changes in the Pacific.
While El Niño typically brings milder
Northeast winters, La Niña often increases chances for colder, snowier conditions.
Neutral ENSO conditions make weather
patterns harder to predict and shift the
focus to other drivers, such the NAO.
While this past month has brought
about continuous ENSO-neutral conditions, La Niña is expected with a 57%
likelihood to emerge October-December
2024 and to persist through January-March 2025 according to the Climate
Prediction Center (CPC).
However, models suggest this La Niña
may be weak, with only slightly cooler
SSTs. Consequently, its influence on Northeast winter weather is not of guaranteed
significance. The CPC seasonal outlooks
even project slightly above-normal temperatures with near-average precipitation.
This shifts our focus to NAO as a key
player. The NAO reflects pressure differences between the Subtropical high and
Subpolar low, influencing the jet stream’s
position, though this chaotic oscillation
is only forecasted for two weeks out. A
negative NAO phase, currently forecasted
for late November, often brings colder air
and stormier weather to the Northeast.
Conversely, a positive NAO steers milder
conditions into the region.
The bottom line ...
With a weaker La Niña expected, this
winter may hinge upon the NAO, as the
strength of this frequently oscillating pat
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tern could mean the difference between a
winter wonderland or a wet, icy mess.
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Winter 2024/25
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